Saturday, June 26, 2021

Pentagon Press Secretary Kirby Releases Statement

Following is the press release in its entirety:

Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment

June 25, 2021

Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment:

Today the Director of National Intelligence delivered to Congress a preliminary assessment on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress that the Intelligence Community and the Department of Defense UAP Task Force has made in understanding this threat.

Analyzing UAP is a collaborative effort involving many departments and agencies, and the Department thanks the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for leading a collaborative effort to produce this assessment, as well as the other contributing departments and agencies.

Incursions into our training ranges and designated airspace pose safety of flight and operations security concerns, and may pose national security challenges.  DOD takes reports of incursions – by any aerial object, identified or unidentified – very seriously, and investigates each one.

The report submitted today highlights the challenges associated with assessing UAP occurring on or near DOD training ranges and installations.  The report also identified the need to make improvements in processes, policies, technologies, and training to improve our ability to understand UAP.

To that end, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks today directed the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security to develop a plan to formalize the mission currently performed by the UAPTF. 

This plan will be developed in coordination with various DOD components, including the military departments and the combatant commands, and with ODNI and other interagency partners.  The plan will establish procedures for synchronizing collection, reporting and analysis of UAP; provide recommendations for securing military test and training ranges; and identify requirements for the establishment and operation of a new follow-on DOD activity to lead the effort, including its alignment, resources, staffing, authorities, and a timeline for implementation. 

You can find the ODNI UAP assessment report on dni.gov or view it below:

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UNCLASSIFIED
OFFICE OF THE DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE
Preliminary Assessment:
Unidentified Aerial Phenomena
25 June 2021
UNCLASSIFIED

SCOPE AND ASSUMPTIONS
Scope
This preliminary report is provided by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in response to the provision in Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act (IAA) for Fiscal Year 2021, that the DNI, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), is to submit an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress the Department of Defense Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) has made in understanding this threat.
This report provides an overview for policymakers of the challenges associated with characterizing the potential threat posed by UAP while also providing a means to develop relevant processes, policies, technologies, and training for the U.S. military and other U.S. Government (USG) personnel if and when they encounter UAP, so as to enhance the Intelligence Community’s (IC) ability to understand the threat. The Director, UAPTF, is the accountable official for ensuring the timely collection and consolidation of data on UAP. The dataset described in this report is currently limited primarily to U.S. Government reporting of incidents occurring from November 2004 to March 2021. Data continues to be collected and analyzed.
ODNI prepared this report for the Congressional Intelligence and Armed Services Committees. UAPTF and the ODNI National Intelligence Manager for Aviation drafted this report, with input from USD(I&S), DIA, FBI, NRO, NGA, NSA, Air Force, Army, Navy, Navy/ONI, DARPA, FAA, NOAA, NGA, ODNI/NIM-Emerging and Disruptive Technology, ODNI/National Counterintelligence and Security Center, and ODNI/National Intelligence Council.
Assumptions
Various forms of sensors that register UAP generally operate correctly and capture enough real data to allow initial assessments, but some UAP may be attributable to sensor anomalies.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The limited amount of high-quality reporting on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP. The Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) considered a range of information on UAP described in U.S. military and IC (Intelligence Community) reporting, but because the reporting lacked sufficient specificity, ultimately recognized that a unique, tailored reporting process was required to provide sufficient data for analysis of UAP events.
• As a result, the UAPTF concentrated its review on reports that occurred between 2004 and 2021, the majority of which are a result of this new tailored process to better capture UAP events through formalized reporting.
• Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.
In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics. These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.
There are probably multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations based on the range of appearances and behaviors described in the available reporting. Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin.
UAP clearly pose a safety of flight issue and may pose a challenge to U.S. national security. Safety concerns primarily center on aviators contending with an increasingly cluttered air domain. UAP would also represent a national security challenge if they are foreign adversary collection platforms or provide evidence a potential adversary has developed either a breakthrough or disruptive technology.
Consistent consolidation of reports from across the federal government, standardized reporting, increased collection and analysis, and a streamlined process for screening all such reports against a broad range of relevant USG data will allow for a more sophisticated analysis of UAP that is likely to deepen our understanding. Some of these steps are resource-intensive and would require additional investment.
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AVAILABLE REPORTING LARGELY INCONCLUSIVE
Limited Data Leaves Most UAP Unexplained…
Limited data and inconsistency in reporting are key challenges to evaluating UAP. No standardized reporting mechanism existed until the Navy established one in March 2019. The Air Force subsequently adopted that mechanism in November 2020, but it remains limited to USG reporting. The UAPTF regularly heard anecdotally during its research about other observations that occurred but which were never captured in formal or informal reporting by those observers.
After carefully considering this information, the UAPTF focused on reports that involved UAP largely witnessed firsthand by military aviators and that were collected from systems we considered to be reliable. These reports describe incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021, with the majority coming in the last two years as the new reporting mechanism became better known to the military aviation community. We were able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others remain unexplained.
• 144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors.
o Most reports described UAP as objects that interrupted pre-planned training or other military activity.
UAP Collection Challenges
Sociocultural stigmas and sensor limitations remain obstacles to collecting data on UAP. Although some technical challenges—such as how to appropriately filter out radar clutter to ensure safety of flight for military and civilian aircraft—are longstanding in the aviation community, while others are unique to the UAP problem set.
• Narratives from aviators in the operational community and analysts from the military and IC describe disparagement associated with observing UAP, reporting it, or attempting to discuss it with colleagues. Although the effects of these stigmas have lessened as senior members of the scientific, policy, military, and intelligence communities engage on the topic seriously in public, reputational risk may keep many observers silent, complicating scientific pursuit of the topic.
• The sensors mounted on U.S. military platforms are typically designed to fulfill specific missions. As a result, those sensors are not generally suited for identifying UAP.
• Sensor vantage points and the numbers of sensors concurrently observing an object play substantial roles in distinguishing UAP from known objects and determining whether a UAP demonstrates breakthrough aerospace capabilities. Optical sensors have the benefit of providing some insight into relative size, shape, and structure. Radiofrequency sensors provide more accurate velocity and range information.
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But Some Potential Patterns Do Emerge
Although there was wide variability in the reports and the dataset is currently too limited to allow for detailed trend or pattern analysis, there was some clustering of UAP observations regarding shape, size, and, particularly, propulsion. UAP sightings also tended to cluster around U.S. training and testing grounds, but we assess that this may result from a collection bias as a result of focused attention, greater numbers of latest-generation sensors operating in those areas, unit expectations, and guidance to report anomalies.
And a Handful of UAP Appear to Demonstrate Advanced Technology
In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics.
Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings.
The UAPTF holds a small amount of data that appear to show UAP demonstrating acceleration or a degree of signature management. Additional rigorous analysis are necessary by multiple teams or groups of technical experts to determine the nature and validity of these data. We are conducting further analysis to determine if breakthrough technologies were demonstrated.
UAP PROBABLY LACK A SINGLE EXPLANATION
The UAP documented in this limited dataset demonstrate an array of aerial behaviors, reinforcing the possibility there are multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations. Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin. With the exception of the one instance where we determined with high confidence that the reported UAP was airborne clutter, specifically a deflating balloon, we currently lack sufficient information in our dataset to attribute incidents to specific explanations.
Airborne Clutter: These objects include birds, balloons, recreational unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or airborne debris like plastic bags that muddle a scene and affect an operator’s ability to identify true targets, such as enemy aircraft.
Natural Atmospheric Phenomena: Natural atmospheric phenomena includes ice crystals, moisture, and thermal fluctuations that may register on some infrared and radar systems.
USG or Industry Developmental Programs: Some UAP observations could be attributable to developments and classified programs by U.S. entities. We were unable to confirm, however, that these systems accounted for any of the UAP reports we collected.
Foreign Adversary Systems: Some UAP may be technologies deployed by China, Russia, another nation, or a non-governmental entity.
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Other: Although most of the UAP described in our dataset probably remain unidentified due to limited data or challenges to collection processing or analysis, we may require additional scientific knowledge to successfully collect on, analyze and characterize some of them. We would group such objects in this category pending scientific advances that allowed us to better understand them. The UAPTF intends to focus additional analysis on the small number of cases where a UAP appeared to display unusual flight characteristics or signature management.
UAP THREATEN FLIGHT SAFETY AND, POSSIBLY, NATIONAL SECURITY
UAP pose a hazard to safety of flight and could pose a broader danger if some instances represent sophisticated collection against U.S. military activities by a foreign government or demonstrate a breakthrough aerospace technology by a potential adversary.
Ongoing Airspace Concerns
When aviators encounter safety hazards, they are required to report these concerns. Depending on the location, volume, and behavior of hazards during incursions on ranges, pilots may cease their tests and/or training and land their aircraft, which has a deterrent effect on reporting.
• The UAPTF has 11 reports of documented instances in which pilots reported near misses with a UAP.
Potential National Security Challenges
We currently lack data to indicate any UAP are part of a foreign collection program or indicative of a major technological advancement by a potential adversary. We continue to monitor for evidence of such programs given the counter intelligence challenge they would pose, particularly as some UAP have been detected near military facilities or by aircraft carrying the USG’s most advanced sensor systems.
EXPLAINING UAP WILL REQUIRE ANALYTIC, COLLECTION AND RESOURCE INVESTMENT
Standardize the Reporting, Consolidate the Data, and Deepen the Analysis
In line with the provisions of Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the IAA for FY 2021, the UAPTF’s long-term goal is to widen the scope of its work to include additional UAP events documented by a broader swath of USG personnel and technical systems in its analysis. As the dataset increases, the UAPTF’s ability to employ data analytics to detect trends will also improve. The initial focus will be to employ artificial intelligence/machine learning algorithms to cluster and recognize similarities and patterns in features of the data points. As the database accumulates information from known aerial objects such as weather balloons, high-altitude or super-pressure balloons, and wildlife, machine learning can add efficiency by pre-assessing UAP reports to see if those records match similar events already in the database.
• The UAPTF has begun to develop interagency analytical and processing workflows to ensure both collection and analysis will be well informed and coordinated.
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The majority of UAP data is from U.S. Navy reporting, but efforts are underway to standardize incident reporting across U.S. military services and other government agencies to ensure all relevant data is captured with respect to particular incidents and any U.S. activities that might be relevant. The UAPTF is currently working to acquire additional reporting, including from the U.S. Air Force (USAF), and has begun receiving data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
• Although USAF data collection has been limited historically the USAF began a six-month pilot program in November 2020 to collect in the most likely areas to encounter UAP and is evaluating how to normalize future collection, reporting, and analysis across the entire Air Force.
• The FAA captures data related to UAP during the normal course of managing air traffic operations. The FAA generally ingests this data when pilots and other airspace users report unusual or unexpected events to the FAA’s Air Traffic Organization.
• In addition, the FAA continuously monitors its systems for anomalies, generating additional information that may be of use to the UAPTF. The FAA is able to isolate data of interest to the UAPTF and make it available. The FAA has a robust and effective outreach program that can help the UAPTF reach members of the aviation community to highlight the importance of reporting UAP.
Expand Collection
The UAPTF is looking for novel ways to increase collection of UAP cluster areas when U.S. forces are not present as a way to baseline “standard” UAP activity and mitigate the collection bias in the dataset. One proposal is to use advanced algorithms to search historical data captured and stored by radars. The UAPTF also plans to update its current interagency UAP collection strategy in order bring to bear relevant collection platforms and methods from the DoD and the IC.
Increase Investment in Research and Development
The UAPTF has indicated that additional funding for research and development could further the future study of the topics laid out in this report. Such investments should be guided by a UAP Collection Strategy, UAP R&D Technical Roadmap, and a UAP Program Plan.
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APPENDIX A - Definition of Key Terms
This report and UAPTF databases use the following defining terms:
Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP): Airborne objects not immediately identifiable. The acronym UAP represents the broadest category of airborne objects reviewed for analysis.
UAP Event: A holistic description of an occurrence during which a pilot or aircrew witnessed (or detected) a UAP.
UAP Incident: A specific part of the event.
UAP Report: Documentation of a UAP event, to include verified chains of custody and basic information such as the time, date, location, and description of the UAP. UAP reports include Range Fouler1 reports and other reporting.
1 U.S. Navy aviators define a “range fouler” as an activity or object that interrupts pre-planned training or other military activity in a military operating area or restricted airspace.
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APPENDIX B – Senate Report Accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021
Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, provides that the DNI, in consultation with the SECDEF and other relevant heads of USG Agencies, is to submit an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by UAP and the progress the UAPTF has made to understand this threat.
The Senate Report specifically requested that the report include:
1. A detailed analysis of UAP data and intelligence reporting collected or held by the Office of Naval Intelligence, including data and intelligence reporting held by the UAPTF;
2. A detailed analysis of unidentified phenomena data collected by:
a. Geospatial Intelligence;
b. Signals Intelligence;
c. Human Intelligence; and
d. Measurement and Signatures Intelligence
3. A detailed analysis of data of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, which was derived from investigations of intrusions of UAP data over restricted U.S. airspace;
4. A detailed description of an interagency process for ensuring timely data collection and centralized analysis of all UAP reporting for the Federal Government, regardless of which service or agency acquired the information;
5. Identification of an official accountable for the process described in paragraph 4;
6. Identification of potential aerospace or other threats posed by the UAP to national security, and an assessment of whether this UAP activity may be attributed to one or more foreign adversaries;
7. Identification of any incidents or patterns that indicate a potential adversary, have achieved breakthrough aerospace capabilities that could put U.S. strategic or conventional forces at risk; and
8. Recommendations regarding increased collection of data, enhanced research and development, additional funding, and other resources. 

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What does this mean to serious UFO/UAP investigators and the public? This release does show that the Pentagon admits that there are objects in our skies that they cannot explain. It just goes one step further than what has already been released after leaks from the U.S. Navy pilots showing unidentified flying craft over the Ocean. It is not, however, an admission that these craft are alien in nature. 

 

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Margie Kay is a UAP investigator and author, and serves as the Assistant State Director for Missouri MUFON.

Monday, June 21, 2021

Culture and Disclosure

 By A. T. Roberts

In the past several years, a steady stream of UFO-related information has inundated our cultural landscape. Some wavetop events are as follows:

-          2017 - Former Blink-182 front man Tom DeLonge establishes To the Stars.

-          2017 - The New York Times and other legacy media outlets break a story on the existence of AATIP, a government-funded program to investigate UAPs (their term).

-          2018 - The documentary Bob Lazar: Area 51 and Flying Saucers is released, breathing life into the story of Lazar and substantiating some of his previously dubious claims.

-          2019 - Video footage is released, via To the Stars, of U.S. Navy fighter pilots encountering UAPs off the coast of California and the Eastern Seaboard in 2004 and 2014-15, respectively.

-          2020 - The documentary The Phenomenon is released, featuring government officials openly speaking about the existence of UAPs.

-          2021 - Congress releases report on UAPs.


This relatively short timeline dwarfs any release on the subject in the decades preceding it. Though it seems as if we are on the precipice of a new era of data sharing and disclosure on behalf of those in power, a comparison to well-known events throughout the history of UFOlogy as well as a more careful examination of current events unfolding may suggest otherwise.  

Government

Several of the highlights listed above that pertain to the federal government have all the trappings of administrative obfuscation behind them. For example, they’re not UFOs anymore, they’re UAPs. Though it's been suggested that the new acronym was created to build distance from the stigma surrounding UFOs, what it really feels like is the government making up new words to make it seem like they’re making progress on the issue.

The Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP), which, in recent years, has made waves in the news cycle, should also be examined with caution. For anyone even remotely familiar with bloated bureaucracy and inflated government spending, $22 million—spaced over five years—seems like a pretty small budget to figure out what’s really occurring in the skies above us; if that was even the government’s plan in the first place. To put it in perspective, congress spent the same amount of money throwing parties to celebrate victories in Iraq and Afghanistan. (1). The whole program rings eerily similar to the now-infamous Project Bluebook, the Air Forces token response to Cold War era UFO sightings; initially run, not by a general (O7-10), but a lowly captain (O3). It’s a feign to show, “Here, we’re taking this seriously, see?” Also, it's not AATIP anymore, it's the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF); another terminology change.

The upcoming congressional report release is another example of hype over what likely amounts to no new information. The government is admitting that yes, something is happening and no, they don’t know exactly what it iswhich, in and of itself, can still be viewed as significant since they’re not saying it's swamp gasbut nothing will change, no substantially new information will be revealed.

The main outlier is the creation of the Space Force. Politics aside, it is nothing revelatory to state that President Trump faced a leviathan and unprecedented opposition in almost every venture he undertook while in office. Highly organized resistance came from the media, private industry/NGOs, various levels of state and federal government, and even his own party. Whether it was an incomplete border wall, lengthy hearing up to the nomination of a federal judge, or a two-year investigation into foreign collusion; any and all plans were thwarted, stalled, or obstructed. Outside of rather quickly produced entertainment-based mockery (2), Trump managed to stand up an entirely new military branch with little-to-no resistance.

The formation of a military branch whose domain co-exists with the recent debuting of the unknown phenomena mentioned above harkens back to the creation of the United States Air Force in the same time frame of foo fighters, Kenneth Arnold’s now-famous sighting, and Roswell.

What makes this massive administrative change significant in the world of UFOlogy is the fact that it was done without the explicit mention of its decision having anything to do with UAPs. If the government said, “yea, we're standing up the Space Force to defend the country from aliens,” Ufologists and enthusiasts alike would obviously freak out, since that would implicitly pay credence to the government’s awareness of the non-terrestrial origin of them; but they didn’t say this. Instead, they told us about AATIP (via the media), career bureaucrats talked on big-budget documentaries and the Joe Rogan podcast, and they released a few videos captured by fighter pilots (via To The Stars).

Media

The 21st Century marks a low point for trust in media institutions. A 2020 survey shows that one third of Americans have zero trust in mass media; a record high, having gone up nine points from merely a year earlier (3). If you also distrust polling data, simply scroll through the comments section of an online advertisement for a legacy media outlet and read the cynicism for yourself. Coupling this notion with the fact that we live in an era of an unprecedented media-government-corporate alliance not seen since WWII, it is almost bizarre how much trust UFOlogists put in the release of the New York Times piece on AATIP. Yes, the program existed; but the public being made aware of its existence should not be thought of as groundbreaking, but rather potentially calculated.

To The Stars, at its core a media company, also has its parallels in UFOlogy folklore. Jamie Shandera comes to mind; a television producer who had the now-infamous “Majestic-12” documents mysteriously appear at his doorstep. The idea that someone who makes a living producing stories was suddenly given allegedly hard-proof evidence as to the existence of a secret government group responsible for the safeguarding of UFO information was taken seriously is almost silly in retrospect. Furthermore, the idea was advanced by Bill Moore, another individual with a predilection to all-things UFO-related. Moore later went on to claim that he was used by the government to spread disinformation.

 Culture

            Maybe one of the most cringe-worthy aspects of everything mentioned above is its dovetailing with the mainstreaming of what was long-considered “nerd culture.” If you’ve seen a movie, watched a television show, or gone on the internet in the past twenty years I’m sure you’ve noticed that what was once nerdy or geeky has officially entered pop-culture, in a truly hyper-capitalist fashion. Aside from the “in before you” whines of real or wannabe nerds claiming that their culture (term used very loosely) is being appropriated, what all this amounts to is a token interest in the fields associated with actually discovering what’s going on in the skies above us. Examples: people with zero interest in aerospace walking around in NASA shirts, the theocratizing of science, the release of more big-budget movies and documentaries on the subject, and so on. Though one might argue that this is all beneficial since it gets more people generally interested in subjects either directly or loosely pertaining to UFOlogy; what it really amounts to, as alluded to above, is a repackaging of old lore in an effort to, on the media front, profit; and on the government front, potentially increase compartmentalization and consolidation of information. This, particularly in the example of media, dilutes the field rather than bolstering it. Are we really any closer to truth as a result of increased UFO/sci-fi popularity, or just the next “storm Area-51” Facebook circus event?

 (1)    https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/50-examples-government-waste

(2)   The show Space Force premiered on Netflix barely six months after the founding of the DoD’s six branch of the military.

(3)   https://news.gallup.com/poll/321116/americans-remain-distrustful-mass-media.aspx

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A. A.T. Roberts is a military aviator and freelance writer. As a lifelong UFO enthusiast, he enjoys reading, writing, and conversing on all aspects of the subject. Contact him at atroberts.author@gmail.com